The Riga Aviation Forum 2025 took place at the ATTA Centre in Riga, bringing together aviation leaders, policymakers, and industry innovators to discuss the future of the Baltic aviation sector. This year’s theme, “Business Continuity: Securing the Future of Baltic Aviation,” focused on resilience, sustainability, and innovation in an era of geopolitical, technological, and environmental challenges.

At the opening of the forum, Zigmārs Vestfals, CEO of the Latvian Aviation Association, highlighted aviation’s role as both a global connector and a pillar of resilience. He emphasized that business continuity requires adaptation, cooperation, and innovation, and invited participants to shape a sustainable and secure future together. In his remarks, the speaker underlined that aviation is not only the fastest connector of people, cultures, and economies, but also a pillar of resilience in today’s uncertain world. He emphasized that continuity is not about standing still, but about adapting, cooperating, and innovating together. Highlighting Riga’s role as a key Baltic gateway, he invited participants to engage in open dialogue and collaboration to shape a sustainable, secure, and resilient future for aviation.

Opening remarks were also delivered by Atis Švinka, Minister of Transport of Latvia, setting the stage for a day of high-level discussions.

Global Industry Outlook Highlighted at Future of Aviation Forum in Riga

At the Future of Aviation Forum in Riga, Raimonds Gruntiņš, Director of Regional Affairs Europe at IATA, Europe delivered a comprehensive presentation on the global aviation industry outlook. Opening his remarks, representing IATA, he underlined the association’s role as a global trade body with 361 members across 120 states, covering around 80% of global air traffic. He noted that IATA’s mission is to represent, lead, and serve the airline industry by setting safety standards, advocating on behalf of members, and offering financial and settlement services.

The presentation covered six main themes: IATA’s role, key economic indicators, fuel, global capacity, traffic trends, and the financial performance of airlines. Addressing fuel, he stressed the importance of today’s spending in enabling future investments in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). By 2050, fuel could represent up to 50% of airlines’ cost base. He recalled how oil prices peaked at $125 per barrel during the war in Ukraine and are now expected to stabilize around $85, though he cautioned that predictability remains uncertain.

Capacity, he explained, continues to be a major challenge. Aircraft deliveries have repeatedly fallen short due to supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, strikes, and engine inspection delays. The backlog has now reached 17,000 aircraft, pushing average waiting times for new planes to six years and potentially 14 years to clear the order book. As a result, airlines are holding onto older fleets—now averaging nearly 15 years—which increases fuel burn, maintenance costs, and emissions. Leasing costs have also surged 20–30% above pre-pandemic levels, adding pressure on already narrow profit margins.

Turning to traffic, he highlighted that passenger numbers reached a record 5 billion in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels of 4.5 billion. Global demand is projected to nearly double to 8 billion passengers over the next 20 years, with Asia-Pacific leading growth thanks to strong economies and favorable demographics. Latvia, too, is expected to see air travel demand rise between 1.6% and 4.9%, depending on global stability and regional developments.

On financial performance, he reminded participants that while airlines achieved record profits in 2023 with a 6.8% operating margin, the industry remains a low-margin business—averaging around 2.8% compared to 30% in banking. This year, revenues are expected to approach $1 trillion, though margins remain vulnerable to cost pressures from labor, leasing, and supply chain constraints.

He concluded by stressing that collaboration, innovation, and adaptability are critical to managing risks such as climate change, geopolitical instability, and high operating costs—while ensuring resilience and sustainable growth for the aviation industry.

Serkan Kaptan, Member of the ACI Board and CEO of TAV Airports, highlighted the transformative role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in aviation at the Riga Aviation Forum.

In his speech, he emphasized the importance of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in strengthening the aviation sector, particularly amid recent regional security concerns.

Kaptan explained that Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) models allow the private sector to invest in and operate airports for a defined period before transferring them back to the state. He underlined that this is not privatization, as ownership remains with the state, but rather a partnership that combines public oversight with private-sector efficiency, financing capability, and commercial expertise.

He noted that PPPs can take various forms depending on airport size and scale—from full management models to terminal and car park operations, which are commonly applied in Turkey. According to Kaptan, such partnerships accelerate infrastructure investment, enabling airports to respond more quickly to rising airline demand while ensuring the state continues to benefit through lease fees or revenue sharing.

Kaptan added that TAV Airports, which operates 15 airports worldwide and is part of the ADP Group, focuses exclusively on the airport business, covering construction, investment, operation, and financing. He concluded that PPPs deliver efficiency, financial flexibility, and speed under state supervision creating a true win-win model for both public and private stakeholders.

He shared how TAV Airports customizes solutions for each airport to meet passenger demand and support growth:

• Antalya Airport – €850M invested in two terminals. With the first phase of investment, the airport reached 65 million passengers. Seasonal operations optimize costs, while TAV contributes over €7B in lease fees to the state and supports jobs and the wider Antalya economy.

• Almaty Airport – $450M invested in a new international terminal. Following the opening of the new terminal in June 2024, the airport reached a 14 million passenger capacity, and traffic has doubled in just two years, enabling airlines like Air Astana to grow rapidly.

• Ankara Airport – With a €210M investment, it will become Turkey’s first carbon-neutral airport, including a new runway, taxiways, and an air traffic control tower to accommodate long-term growth.

• Tbilisi Airport, Georgia – Continuous investment over 20 years enabled traffic to grow tenfold, supporting the local economy and airline development.

Kaptan emphasized that PPPs accelerate decision-making, financing, and operations, aligning airport growth with airline demand. They expand commercial areas, create jobs both directly and indirectly, and contribute significantly to national GDP, reinforcing that airports are key economic engines for their regions.

Hamdi Nasser, Navigation Expert at Eurocontrol, discussed strategies for navigating evolving aviation threats.

Throughout the day, the forum addressed critical topics including AI in aviation, green fuel technologies, UAV regulation, digital transformation, resilience planning, and civil-military cooperation. High-level panels featured senior representatives from Baltic transport ministries, IATA, ACI Europe, airBaltic, Riga Airport, and leading international aviation experts, including Ersan Arcan, CEO of ATU Duty Free, who took part in panel discussions on airport development and commercial innovation.

The Riga Aviation Forum 2025 served as a strategic platform for dialogue and actionable insight, reinforcing the role of aviation in regional security, economic growth, and sustainable development — helping to future-proof aviation in the Baltics and beyond